SA Will Adelaide perform from late 2015/2016..will it be a goer?

IMO timing is key, not time in the market, anyone can buy property

all markets turn, nature of the beast, if you get the timing right you mitigate the risk

 

Completely agree

 

Thanks Simon for understanding.
I just see a lot of problems property investing might have in the future in Adelaide and all over the country.

 

Since i asked this, except @Simon Hampel and couple of other members, no one really answered OP's thread title question.

I guess thread de-railed in to passive-aggressive and I must say THOSE who have property in Adelaide went on defensive. Anyway, each to their own and i wish everyone who is developing/investing in Adelaide/SA makes money.

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Here is what we found (Thanks to our Data Research Team).
We don't play in SA market (and not intending to), so this data is for information only, treat this as it suits you the best.

Infrastructure projects

• Adelaide Riverbank Precinct
• Adelaide Oval
• Cycling and Pedestrian Projects
• Glenside Campus redevelopment
• Health & Biomedical Research Precinct
• O-Bahn City Access
• Royal Adelaide Hospital
• Stations Upgrade Program
• Rail Revitalisation
• Regional Mining and Infrastructure Planning project
• The Parks


Road Projects:

• Adelaide - Melbourne Road Corridor
• APY Lands Main Access Road Upgrade
• Bald Hills Road Interchange
• Darlington Upgrade Project
• Fullarton Road Upgrade - Magill Road to Beulah Road
• Grange Road and Findon Road Intersection Upgrade
• Greenhill Road Median Safety Improvements
• Magill road and Glynburn road Intersection Upgrade
• North-South Corridor
• North East Road and Sudholz Road Safety Improvements
• Northern Connector
• Penola Southern Bypass Project
• Road Management Plans
• Saltfleet Street Bridge Strengthening Project

Source:
http://www.infrastructure.sa.gov.au/infrastructure_projects


Employment:

As of today on seek.com , approx 4800 Jobs listed!

As of 8th july 2015, unemployment rate 8.2 (national rate 6%)

Source:
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2015-07-09/sa-records-highest-jobless-rate-in-16-years/6607140

Extract from above:

“South Australian Premier Jay Weatherill said the state's growing unemployment rate was "deeply disturbing".

"Figure could reach double digits: Business SA"

Migration:

2013-2014 Report (Doesn't look Good)

Approx 11000 moved in (from overseas)
approx 2000 moved out (to interstate)

Trend will continue in 2014-2015 and year on.

Source:
http://www.abs.gov.au/ausstats/[email protected]/mf/3412.0/


Tourism:

Year Ending March-2015

AUD $5.4 Billion
381,000 international visitors

Source:
http://tourism.sa.gov.au/assets/documents/SATC_infogram_2_pager_Mar_15.pdf


Fiscal Budget paper 2015-2016

Glossy info graphics but no major improvement on Financial Data (infact negative growth, based on current climate)

Extract from Report

In South Australia, Gross State Product (GSP) is forecast to increase by 2 per cent in real terms in 2015–16, following expected growth of 1¾ per cent in 2014–15. Positive trends have been evident in improved consumer spending, and in the tourism and international education sectors. There has also been strong growth in exploration spending in South Australia over the past twelve months, centred on petroleum. The lower Australian dollar is expected to further support trade exposed businesses taking advantage of the stronger world outlook by making them more competitive. Employment growth in South Australia is expected to be ½ per cent in 2014–15, and 1 per cent in 2015–16. The state will, however, continue to face a range of challenges over the next few years as car manufacturing ceases in 2017. Further challenges include falling commodity prices which are affecting mining operations in South Australia."

Source:

http://servicesa.cdn.on.net/releases2015/2015-16 BP1 -20State Budget Overview.pdf

 

Nice post there bedeveloper, touches on a number of the projects underway in the State.

http://www.smh.com.au/business/bp-f...ralian-bight-exploration-20150519-gh4pfz.html - I've been watching this one with interest, it would be quite a positive if it does go further.

South Australia is at the head of a structural change in the local economy, which is slowly having to drag itself into the 21st century from attempting to be an industrial production economy. Diversification from this has been slow but is inevitably moving forward.

As always - the biggest wealth is generated in markets going through transition, it's just a matter of timing and expectations.

Went to an open in the Adelaide city fringe on the weekend, there was over 20 groups at the first open. Likewise the previous week another open inspection saw over 10 groups, and sold 3 days on the market for a comparatively high price. Interesting times.

 

Which area was that?

 

The ever popular Prospect.

 

A couple opens in Paralowie also had similar numbers weekend before last.

 

Good post, now the million $ question would you buy in Adelaide for yourself or your clients?

MTR

 

Absolutely. Adelaide is where Sydney was in 2011/2012

 

I wouldn't say 2011/2012.

I say more like 2004-5

 

I would say more like 2008

 

600k median by June 2018
https://www.sa.gov.au/topics/housin...vice-for-buyers/median-house-sales-by-quarter

 

If you look at how both the Brisbane and Adelaide markets have performed you can see a similiar trend in regards to capitial growth rates with both Brisbane & Adelaide last outperforming the combined capitals in 2007.
Most would say that Brisbane is ahead of Adelaide in regards to the property cycle and its growth drivers but no doubt that both have had similiar growth rates since 2007

 

ANZ Statometer backs up that assessment as well.

 

Great because I bought there for 185k a couple of years ago. The houses is less than 20 yrs old...with a big block of land.

 

I dont look at statistics, they are too rubbery

 

I will look at it after I have finished in Brissie..I need more heat in the market.

 

Wise choice, figures Beinvested posted pretty much sums it up as to why it makes little sense to buy in Adelaide at the moment. Its easy for investors to let emotion get in the way.

I hope you all make pots of money in Adelaide, but I don't see it.

Let's revisit this in 12 months time, my guess is most markets will be on the nose.

Sometimes we should just sit back and do nothing, I see. a storm brewing Australia wide, why? Au$ falling, APRA, share market on roller coaster ride, Chinese market slowing down, mining done and dusted, and finally Government of the day lacks direction.

MTR

 

I think reviewing Adelaide in 12 months time would indicate a modest increase...my thoughts would be 18-24 months to see good growth