NSW The Signs of Sydney Slowdown....

The media's report on housing is gaining a lot of momentum...

http://www.smh.com.au/national/whic...edicted-house-price-drop-20151017-gkbl0n.html

http://www.smh.com.au/money/expecte...ws-for-first-time-buyers-20151014-gk9guo.html

Great topics on a Sunday.

 

The non-reported properties screw with the final result too much. If it were mandatory to report within, say, a week at the latest then we can trust the figures.

Maybe someone can confirm - are agents required to report non-sales at some point?

 

Good point

 

Exactly.

 

Well said:

However Andrew Wilson, a senior economist with Fairfax Media's Domain group, said he doesn't agree with an assessment house prices will fall.

"There's nothing that will grab the attention of Australian homeowners more than the headline 'house prices falling'," he said. "There's no historical precedent for this [prediction], particularly given we do not have the prospect of a sharp increase in interest rates.

"Short term variances might occur, but those things reflect confidence more than anything else."

 

That's true. Properties especially in capital cities only go in one direction...up...in the long term. But, the question is can we manage the holding costs during the correction phases and will any short term price changes affect our equity positions and dampen our ability to grow our portfolio? The answer would be yes. Such is the importance of market timing and the significance of the property cycle in allowing us to grow portfolios.

 

Yep very good points that many people forget but the people with higher holding costs wont be selling anytime soon..not til rates rise anyway..or in 5 yrs when the price they paid is still the same but its costing them $150/week to hold

 

I wonder what the clearance rate would be in a parallel universe where westpac rate change, 'a forecast' or the media didn't manipulate the market.

Not complaining - market goes up and down. 20 even 10 years ago in a less connected world the changes would have been much slower.

 

I think blaming westpac is drawing a long bow. There are a lot of reasons why Sydney is slowing down. Westpac may have played a small part. The interesting thing is that Melbourne had a cracking weekend for auctions. Don't they have westpac there?

 

Westpac= West Sydney and Tupac mixed into one. #conspiracy #illuminati..

 

"The REINSW analysis found – contrary to perceptions that Sydney's inner-ring suburbs are more impervious to price falls – that in 2012 a grouping of suburbs classified as inner-ring, including Marrickville, Mosman and Lane Cove fell by 6.5 per cent, a grouping of middle-ring suburbs such as Manly, Parramatta and Strathfield fell by 4 per cent, and outer-ring suburbs including Blacktown, Penrith and Gosford fell by 2.5 per cent."

Interesting, my perception was that outer-ring suburbs would see more of a correction, perhaps a misguided one considering the above analysis.

 

I don't agree with their analysis. Manly has very little supply.

Blacktown and Parramatta have hugh amounts of supply coming through.

Lane Cove, Strathfield are about mid level in terms of supply.

 

I think their analysis is bang on and this is what I have anticipated. Supply is one thing, the number of buyers is another. The amount of buyers spending 1.5-2mill are fewer than the buyers in the 400-600k mark.

 

What's everyones thoughts on Sydney if rates go down again and banks pass it?

 

I don't think it will have much affect with investors; however, it could improve owner occupier sentiment and keep prices stable.

 

Once it goes it will go. Interest rates won't change that IMO.

 

Just got an email from Stockland today. They are about to release first stage of land at Schofields (next to Schofields train station). The prices starts from 525K for 375sqm land. They are doing EOI now with 200 people being selected by ballot. Also the applicants must show they have proof of loan pre-approval of 499K, and also 10% deposit:

http://www.stockland.com.au/downloads/schofields-release-1-terms-and-conditions.pdf

It would be very interesting to see if they can sell out their land. On one hand the market has turned, on the other hand Stockland is a very reputable company and there are people who still wants to build their dream home.

 

For that price I can get 3 blocks of land in Melbourne...closer to the city about 25-30 klms.....I take land will take 6-12 months to register. No way I would be getting this sort of stuff so late in the cycle...

 

I actually think this will be the first estate Stockland screw up with. They purchased it early this year at a huge price before the market slowed. Land is still selling at crazy prices there and no issues with vals but I think there and Box Hill have screwed up because they have started at $1400/sqm. Usually Stockland starts low and moves up in price (5-10k each stage) as the stages go on but starting at $1400/sqm they will have to get creative cause they usually favour owner occupiers over investors too..

 

Interesting. I see Auburn gets a mention. I am keeping an eye on Auburn, Guildford, Fairfield area for a future purchase. Getting the timing right is the million dollar question... 3-5 years ?